The future of the UK third sector

An NCVO Third Sector Foresight policy forum in January 2009 looked ahead to possible public policy agendas in 2014.

Using a range of drivers, and imagining a combination of two “critical uncertainties” – specifically, the length & depth of the current recession, and whether a Labour or Conservative government is in power in 2014 – several fascinating future scenarios were created.

You can see them all in the forum’s 7-page write-up.

Looking across the scenarios, it is interesting to note what elements were common to several groups. These could be seen as the most likely elements of the future, whatever critical uncertainties might emerge.

• A voluntary and community sector that is smaller, yet more diverse and more fragmented
• Local infrastructure organisations (such as Councils for Voluntary Service, and thematic networks) facing significant challenges in representing this more fragmented sector
• Many more mergers, partnerships and collaborations between voluntary and community organisations, with a loss of distinctiveness but greater diversity in local provision across the country. Charities are collaborating not just on similar issues, but around similar users
• Increased user involvement
• Organisations who are not working with mainstream agendas or most-at-risk service users finding it harder to survive
• A more divided UK society generally
• A rise in “localism” – a range of political philosophies which prioritise the local: local production and consumption of goods, local control of government, and local culture and identity (its opposite could be termed “centralism”)
• A greater reliance on a strong evidence base and on outcomes in determining public expenditure
• An increased role for charity fundraisers, and a decreased role for campaigners Campaigning is directed mainly at the local level especially in relation to individualised budgets

Does this match how you’d see the sector in the future?

The 2009 Budget statement gave an indication of the financial future for the third sector. Whilst the NHS and education will remain fairly protected over the next two years, the real pain across all sectors will bite in 2011. Health must find 2.3bn of savings in 2011, education £1bn and local councils £600m. Efficiencies may not be enough to deliver the savings, with fears of further hard decisions about services and jobs.

This is troubling for charities that rely on NHS and local authority funding. It seems inevitable that the marketisation of services will continue apace: commissioning in response to the most economically advantageous tenders, and the roll-out of personalised budgets.

Key messages for voluntary and community organisations must surely be:
• Take responsibility for your own future: the changing landscape is likely to provoke challenges for most voluntary and community organisations
• Increase your capacity to improve your internal ‘business’ processes in relation to resources, people and governance
• Get to know your service users, and become practised in gathering and responding to feedback. In the marketisation of the care sectors, your service users will soon become your customers
• Are you still attractive to statutory funders? Do you need to consider merging or collaborating?
• Does your organisation need to find alternative funding sources? Can you find ways of avoiding the worse excesses of the current funding climate?

I and a Framework colleague, Moira Halliday, have recently researched the state of the third sector in Gloucestershire. You can download our report at www.gtsr.org.uk.

Do you see similar futures as those set out in this posting? Would you agree on the key messages to the sector?